Malaysia Expected to Face La Nina Phenomenon

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia is expected to face a brief La Nina phenomenon in the early winter of 2025/2026 and has the potential to affect rainfall patterns, however the situation is expected to return to a stable neutral level shortly thereafter.

The National Climate Centre, Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) in a statement said that the long-term weather forecast for September 2025 to February 2026 shows that the majority of international climate models predict that the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition is now neutral with a 56 percent probability of continuing until October.

“Based on the consensus of several climate forecast models, global phenomena that shape the country’s current weather such as ENSO, Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are also referred to.

“The majority of international climate models show that the latest ENSO conditions are neutral with the latest Ocean Nino Index (ONI) in the Nino 3.4 monitoring area for May, June and July 2025 being – 0.1 degrees Celsius,” he said.

He said, after that period, there is a possibility of La Nina occurring for a short period early next year before the weather pattern returns to stability.

“This phenomenon is expected to affect rainfall patterns in the Southeast Asian region including Malaysia.

“Currently, the country is still in the final phase of the Southwest Monsoon which is expected to last until this month.

“Southwesterly winds cause low air humidity, thus reducing the formation of rain clouds in most states,” he said.

MetMalaysia said, in this regard, more days without rain than rainy days are expected to occur in addition to the risk of local and cross-border haze if open burning activities are not controlled.

“Despite the dry weather, the risk of strong winds and thunderstorms remains, especially in the western areas of the Peninsula, northern Sarawak and western Sabah,” he said.

According to the statement, thunderstorms usually occur in the early morning due to squall lines, which are lines of thunderstorms formed as a result of wind convergence and can last for several hours.

Commenting on the latest weather conditions, MetMalaysia informed that analysis of the latest weather forecast models, strong westerly winds are expected to blow in the country’s region starting from 22 to 25 September 2025.

“This situation has the potential to cause the formation of squall lines that bring heavy rain and strong winds, especially in northern Sarawak, western Sabah and Federal Territory (WP) Labuan during that period,” he said.

MetMalayisa advised the public to always be aware of the weather warnings issued by MetMalaysia from time to time to face any eventuality.